An Oral History – Best of Brian Gutekunst's drafts: 2020

Sixth in a seven-part series of "best of" drafts in Packers history.

To be sure, Jordan Love still needs to sharpen his game and become more consistent, not only week to week but play to play; and even more importantly, to stay healthy. But it's as obvious as it can be that he has the makeup and physical skills to establish himself as one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL.

Make no mistake about it, selecting a QB with his talent and ceiling late in the first round of any NFL Draft is a longshot.

Love was drafted 26^th in 2020. Now, let's put that in historical perspective.

Starting with the first common draft in 1967, following the merger of the NFL and AFL, Love was the 37^th QB selected covering picks from No. 16-32.

Granted, starting with the 16^th choice was an arbitrary decision. Here's why: A top 10 pick would never correlate to a mid-20s pick. Plus, Ben Roethlisberger was drafted 11th and Jim Kelly, 14^th. Those choices in quarterback-rich drafts don't equate either. Hence, 15 just seemed like the next best round number.

This way, 21 of the other 36 QBs considered here were drafted higher than Love; two others in the same slot; and 12 later than him. That should eliminate any claim that the methodology being used here was tilted in Love's favor.

Using the 32^nd pick at the other end covers all first-round choices since 2002. In all but one of the other 35 years, it was a second-round choice. From 1995 to 2001, the number of first-round selections ranged from 32 to 30. And before that, from 1967-94, the range was 25 to 29.

QBs Drafted 16-32 (1967-2020)

Back to Love and the crapshoot of drafting a QB somewhere from 16 and 32.

Of the other 36 chosen in that range over 54 drafts from 1967-2020, only Dan Marino has been inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Drew Brees will be eligible in 2026, and Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson five years after they retire.

Based on that data, a team basically has an 11 percent chance today of snaring a future Hall of Fame QB in the first round if it doesn't own a top 15 pick.

For the record, of the 27 modern-era QBs inducted into Canton, 14 entered the league since the first common draft in 1967. Among those, eight were first-round choices, including four No. 1 picks overall; four others were drafted in the second or third rounds; and Warren Moon and Kurt Warner were originally signed as free agents.

Four of the 36 QBs drafted in Love's range won Super Bowls: Doug Williams, Brees, Rodgers and Joe Flacco. Again, that's an 11 percent chance unless Lamar Jackson wins one in the future, which would increase the likelihood.

Here are some more numbers to digest.

Twelve of the 36, or 33 percent, didn't last more than five seasons in the NFL. Love will be entering his fifth. Sixteen of the 36, or 44 percent, started fewer than 33 regular-season games. Love has started 33.

Only 10, or 28 percent, won more than half their starts. That includes San Francisco bust Jim Druckenmiller's 1-0 mark, despite his 10 completions in 28 attempts for 102 yards with three interceptions. Love is 18-15.

Nineteen of the 36, or 53 percent, never started a postseason game. Love has started three. Twenty-eight of the 36, or 78 percent, never made a Pro Bowl. Thirty-one, or 86 percent, failed to be named to multiple Pro Bowls. Love has yet to be named, as well.

The harsh reality of those numbers is why Gutekunst's 2020 draft has been his best and could still rank among the Packers' best of all-time if Love scales greater heights in the future, especially if he wins a Super Bowl.

Keep in mind, zero out of the other 36 QBs taken in his draft range have won more than one Super Bowl.

By comparison, five of the eight common-draft era QBs in Canton who were top 15 draft picks in their respective years – Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, John Elway and Peyton Manning – all won multiple Super Bowls for a combined total of 13.

What's more, at some point that number is all but certain to increase by at least five with Roethlisberger's two and 10^th overall pick Patrick Mahomes' three; and if Eli Manning (another first overall choice) gets in, the total will rise to at least 20.

Following the Love trail

Gutekunst selected Love from a makeshift draft room at his home in suburban Green Bay. That was the year of what the NFL referred to as a virtual draft due to the stay-at-home orders during the COVID pandemic.

Gutekunst entered the draft with the 30^th choice and traded a fourth-round selection to Miami to move up to 26^th to assure that he got Love.

Although quarterback wasn't a pressing need, Gutekunst as a college scout had kept a close eye on Ted Thompson in the days and hours leading up to his selection of Rodgers when Brett Favre was 35 and hadn't missed a game in 12 seasons. Rodgers was 36 when the 2020 draft was held and coming off back-to-back seasons where he didn't miss a game.

Gutekunst, again like Thompson with Rodgers, had done his homework throughout the 2019 college football season.

On Oct. 5, Gutekunst and fellow Packers scouts Sam Seale and Luke Benuska were at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., when Utah State, with Love at quarterback, got trounced by LSU, 42-6. The Tigers' Joe Burrow, who would win the Heisman Trophy and go No. 1 in the draft, completed 27 of 38 passes for 344 yards and five TDs.

Nevertheless, Gutekunst also liked what he saw of the quarterback who didn't have Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase to throw to that day. Love's stat line was unimpressive to say the least: 15 of 30 for 130 yards with three interceptions. But the game was a mismatch from the start: Utah State had the ball for only 18:57 and managed just 10 first downs to LSU's 32.

After the Packers lost to San Francisco in the NFC championship on Jan. 19, 2020, Gutekunst flew directly from there to Mobile, where Love would be practicing for the following weekend's Senior Bowl. He was one of three highly rated QBs on the two rosters and would start for the North squad. Oregon's Justin Herbert and Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts were on the South roster.

In late February, Gutekunst got another look at and a one-on-one meeting with Love at the NFL Scouting Combine. Only days before at a Q&A with sportswriters in Green Bay, Gutekunst revealed that he hadn't ruled out drafting a quarterback in the first round.

Gutekunst (Q&A, Feb. 21, 2020): "You guys have heard me say this before, everything I've been taught, that's where you start, you start with the quarterback. So you evaluate them every year, and I think it's always on the table. It's a good crop this year, it's a good group of quarterbacks."

Gutekunst, recollecting Thompson's decision to draft Rodgers (Q&A, Feb. 21, 2020): "I do remember Mike Sherman was our head coach and there were a lot of people not real thrilled about that at the time. … The thing that stood out to me about that, Ted had been on the job for three months. If you really look back at that, Brett Favre is your quarterback, the coaching staff had been here and Ted was (just) coming in. To have the courage at that time to do that, and what that one decision did for the organization for how many years later, that stuck with me. It could have been real easy to do something different. (Thompson) thought that was the right thing to do and he did it."

Gutekunst (Q&A, Feb. 21, 2020): "Aaron didn't play for three years and for three years people were probably saying, 'Well, that was a total waste.' I just don't think developing a young quarterback is (ever) a waste. You just don't know when the time is going to be when you're going to need him. … I know this – if you make it a priority to develop quarterbacks, I think it's going to be a positive for your organization."

Three QBs taken among first six picks

After Cincinnati jumped on Burrow, Miami took Tua Tagovailoa fifth and the Chargers snared Herbert with the sixth pick. Love was the next to go 20 choices later. Philadelphia drafted Hurts in the second round with the 53^rd overall pick.

In all, 13 QBs were drafted. Of the eight who were selected from the fourth through the seventh rounds, they have appeared in a combined 12 NFL games and not one has played since 2022.

Gutekunst (conference call, April 23, 2020): "We've got the best quarterback in the National Football League, and we're going to have him for a while competing for championships. I can understand the fan base and people thinking kind of, 'Why would you do this at this time?' But I think the value of our board and the way it's at, I think it was best for the Green Bay Packers."

Gutekunst (conference call, April 23, 2020): "We think a lot of (Love). We think down the road, he certainly has all the ability to be a difference maker at that position, but these things take time, especially at that position."

Gutekunst (conference call, April 23, 2020): "As far as skill set, (Love's) a very natural thrower, can make all the throws. He's a very good athlete. He has the kind of size we look for, and I just think there's some rawness to him, but I just think he's got everything in front of him. He's a very good athlete, very loose, fluid athlete, and his ability to create second chances when things break down was one of the things that drew us to him."

Four other 2020 picks still on NFL rosters

Among the Packers' other eight picks in 2020, three were still active last year: guard Jon Runyan with the New York Giants, center Jake Hanson with the New York Jets and tight end Josiah Deguara with Jacksonville. Running back AJ Dillon rushed for 2,428 in four seasons with the Packers, missed last year with an injury and recently signed with Philadelphia.