Inbox: Imagine how a GM feels

Summer from Dayton, OH

What are you most excited for in the upcoming draft?

Getting it started. Finally. One more day.

Craig from Suamico, WI

Perhaps the fans that want to understand how a team sets up their board for the draft could get a better understanding by ranking their favorite music or movies or food. They may realize there isn't that big a difference in their taste for "Christmas Vacation" and "Shawshank Redemption" so whichever one is available is the one you'll watch when the time comes. Or maybe you trade down cause you're fine to settle for "Caddyshack" or "Fletch."

Trade DOWN for "Fletch"? Did you say trade DOWN for "Fletch"? Not possible on my movie board, Mr. Sinilindin.

JD from Eagan, MN

Are the Packers' Suburbans green with gold trim?

Nope. They're either black or white, but they do have Packers plates.

Dennis from Parrish, FL

Stiff hips, high ceiling, high floor, twitched-up athlete … When does it end? Saturday about 5 p.m.?

Let's hope.

Chris from Marshfield, WI

Regarding Green Bay's infrastructure limitations, do you think the fact that Green Bay will never be allowed to host a Super Bowl was a factor in the NFL's decision to have the draft in Green Bay?

I think that's why several of the locations in this first decade of moving the draft around have been chosen. Chicago, Philly, Cleveland, Nashville and Kansas City have never hosted Super Bowls either.

Duane from Bangor, WI

Mike or Wes, I know that the Green Bay area gets a huge economic boost for the 8-9 home games but how does next week compare? Similar to a game, maybe two or three?

The economic impact of a home game in Green Bay is estimated to be around $15M. Murphy has said the impact of the draft for the greater Green Bay area will be around $20M, and for the state of Wisconsin around $95M.

David from San Antonio, TX

I'm not a big fan of the Prospect Primer series. I want all of them now!

Imagine how a GM feels, watching all that talent they've scouted going elsewhere every year. Nature of the beast, obviously, but still has to be tough.

Kenneth from Virginia Beach, VA

I read a story yesterday that currently each NFL team still has their original first-round draft pick. I'll take the over at zero that this stays the same thru Thursday night.

That's such a good bet that even at Bushwood, I don't think it would qualify as gambling.

Garrett from Rockford, MI

Hey Insiders, if the Packers sit tight at pick 23, what time range on Thursday night do you anticipate the pick being announced?

Based on past timelines, pick 23 has been made around 9:25-45 p.m. CT.

John from Stevens Point, WI

Supposing the Packers trade down from the first round to the top of the second round. What would they receive in return? What does the trade value chart suggest?

Dropping from 23 to the top of the second round would be worth a mid to upper third-round pick. A bigger drop to, say, the middle of the second round, might net another late second. I'm certainly not ruling it out, and a trade back is more likely than a trade up. But I've gotten this weird feeling – based on nothing, really, other than gut instinct – that Gutey just might trade up on Friday night when someone's available in the upper portion of the second round he didn't expect to still be on the board. Probably means nothing, but just a hunch.

Margeaux from Tallahassee, FL

OK Mike, Wes has postulated the Packers' first-round pick as of Monday. With your innate sense of how the draft will fall and your extraordinary prognostication success rate, who will it be?

Ha. The only first-round pick in recent years I've had a strong belief the Packers would draft is Devonte Wyatt. So I'm sticking with that position and saying Derrick Harmon from Oregon. Or Walter Nolen from Ole Miss.

Joe from Norwich, NY

With the May 1 deadline for offering the fifth-year option to 2022 first-round picks based on a formula that includes playing time and Pro Bowl selection, what will the cap hit be if/when the Packers pick up the option on Quay Walker?

Walker's fifth-year option is projected to be around $14.7M, with Wyatt's at $13.9M. Gutey suggested the Packers want both around long term, so even if the options are exercised, they might serve as a bridge to work something out before those actual cap numbers would hit the books in '26.

Steve from Bloomington, IL

Theoretical draft question. You are reasonably confident the player you want will be available at pick 30-35. You have two trade offers. One to drop to pick 30, the other to pick 33. At 30 you get a fifth-year option. At 33 presumably you got more in trade compensation and a lower salary cost. Which trade do you take? Which do you value more, the fifth-year option or the extra draft capital and salary savings?

The fifth-year option and cap difference wouldn't matter to me. It would hinge on what my board looked like. If I'm dropping from 23 to 30, I'd want to have 4-5 guys I'm perfectly happy taking to feel comfortable moving down. If I'm going down 10 spots, that number jumps to 6-7 guys or I'm risking a shift into another tier of my board.

Tom from West Salem, WI

Now that the draft is upon us, which Packer draftee from previous years immediately got your attention in your first interview with him? Which one gave you that "Wow" feeling as he was telling his story, and not necessarily about football?

There have been many memorable conference calls with players right after they were drafted. In recent years, Grant DuBose's introduction stood out, when he was one of the last picks of the entire draft after his original school canceled its entire football program due to Covid.

Zak from Huntington Beach, CA

I have a few questions about the draft as it relates to the Hall of Fame. What percentage of NFL HOFF members were drafted in the first round? Also, do you notice any statistical anomalies (such as more fifth-rounders than fourth-rounders in the Hall, etc.)? Lastly, how many undrafted players have gotten a gold jacket?

According to the PFHOF website, the number of inductees by draft round is as follows: 137 in the first or bonus rounds, 38 in the second, 27 in the third, 12 in the fourth, eight in the fifth, four in the sixth, 10 in the seventh, 25 in any round after the seventh, and 22 free agents. Or 137 first-rounders, and 146 all others.

Paul from Ledgeview, WI

Mike for all those players who outperform their draft status, was it really a matter of a missed assessment, or was it the opportunity (coaching, playing time, etc.) that made the player? Likewise have there been first-rounders who underperformed because it was a misfit based on coaching or scheme, or…? It's not just the draft part that's a crapshoot, it's the develop piece as well.

It certainly can be. I've always believed situational fit matters, but I've also believed any player truly talented enough will find his way, barring injury.

Jeff from Mequon, WI

Hey Inbox, I found a statistic that helps put the draft in perspective. Only 44% of first-round picks over the past decade have signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. So over half were cut, traded, or became free agents when the rookie contracts expired. Given all the hype in the first round over size and athletic profile, do you think drafting in the later rounds becomes less about athleticism and more about guys who have shown they can play ball?

No. I think the percentage of players after the first round who sign second contracts with the team that drafted them is a lot less than 44.

Flavio from Sao Paulo, Brazil

Hello, Insiders! I don´t know if this has been asked before, but here it goes: Elgton Jenkins was Josh Myers' backup. With EJ moving to center, who (not whom) will be his backup? Zach Tom, I guess?

I'd guess Jacob Monk, or a center the Packers draft this week if he can beat out Monk.

Marty from Plymouth, WI

Not a question, but an observation. In these days of near-constant transfer portals in college, it will be interesting in the years ahead to see how players and professional teams handle being committed to remaining with one team for x amount of years. Many players have little experience with either having to "wait their turn," or to buckle down and work harder for playing time. No more "I'm not playing enough, so I'm leaving." Sure makes scouting more difficult.

That's a very salient point, and a big reason Gutey talked so much Monday about trying to learn and figure out how players have handled adversity in the past. Because it's a given they'll encounter plenty in the NFL.

Don from Cedar Rapids, IA

How does a GM know, with current players or with draft prospects, that the player "will only get better" vs. the player "has already reached his maximum potential"?

That's really the crux of the crystal-ball business that is scouting. They look at a player's career arc to this point, his physical body development, the traits and intangibles, all of it. That projection is how a scout makes or breaks his career.

Kenton from Rochester, MN

BG has been quoted as saying guys picked in the draft "need to be the kind of guys that are going to fit into that culture and add to it." Is there any science to how to determine if a player will fit into your locker room? Do they take a personality test or something or is it all done just by feel and hearsay?

Derrick's got a good story that relates.

Derrick from Dell Rapids, SD

As we approach the draft, I have seen questions about scouts and judge of characters. My father worked as the equipment manager at SDSU (go Kraft) for over 40 years. When we were kids he would sometimes just casually drop that he had a meeting with different NFL teams like it was nothing. We asked why are they talking to you? He said, because the players don't answer to me like they do coaches. And teams want to know how they treat employees and regular people. That's how they judge players.

They also know people like your dad would have no reason to lie or embellish.

Steve from Phoenix, AZ

"The draft is always more about the future than the presen.t. What an interesting statement! That seems to be a biased self-fulfilling Green Bay perspective – kind of like "if you take care of the cap...". Every year, draftniks list the teams (and coaches/GMs) that have to nail the draft (presumably to keep their jobs). Teams like the Packers always look to the future, which sustains their competitiveness, allowing the draft luxury of improving today by building tomorrow.

I've never covered a Packers draft – and my count is well over 20 now, including my newspaper days – during which it ever felt like the GM was drafting for his job.

Steve from Ankeny, IA

I am wondering who is in the room on draft day. Obviously, Murphy and Gutenkunst, but who else takes part? I'm sure there are too many people working on this to fit them all in the room. Are some scouts in the room, etc.? It's almost here!

The entire personnel department, headed by Gutey, is in there, along with Murphy, LaFleur, Russ Ball, plus several other support people in scouting and on the tech side. It's a team unto its own.

Jim from Westland, MI

Teams with the worst record get the highest draft picks, have more team needs to be addressed and the highest expectations for those draft prospects to be stars. Not just contribute. The back of the draft features winning teams, with fewer needs, and picks are investments in the future.

Absolutely needing a first-round draft pick to play right away is an indication something's gone wrong.

Gary from Chippewa Falls, WI

When does the UDFA list begin to take shape?

Saturday evening.

Markus from Aurora, CO

Insiders, since I won't be able to attend the draft in person, I will make my best efforts to utilize the packers.com draft coverage. Can you remind us all out-of-towners what coverage there will be? Maybe a live chat by Mike?

I won't be doing anything live due to everything else that's planned. With each pick, I'll be writing a quick bulletin story with Wes doing an instant reaction video with Larry. Wes and I will trade off on doing longer written profiles on the picks, and I'll have some end-of-day columns as well. Plus the press conferences and conference calls will all be streamed live on the site. We'll have it all for you.

Robert from Saginaw, MI

My draft prediction: The Packers will not trade up; they don't have enough draft capital to give up picks. If they pick at 23, it will be a reach for a player who would have been there in Round 2. If they trade back, it will prove the Packers brass don't care about winning since they didn't take a player who will help them win now. Did I forget anything?

One. More. Day. Happy Wednesday.