Here's Part II of my answer to Ted from Amherst, N.Y.
Actually, the answer was generated by Matt Adamczyk, a Microsoft technologist at TitletownTech. He was one of four experts I turned to in search of an algorithm to determine whether an NFL threepeat would be more difficult to achieve today than when the 1967 and 1931 Green Bay Packers accomplished the feat. Adamczyk based his formula on specific probabilities and historical input that he considered pertinent to the question.
"Algorithm is a good descriptor as I am not adhering to all of the standards that an academic would want for a proper statistical analysis," Adamczyk explained. He also noted, "I have used AI in my analysis as well."
Part I was posted yesterday with feedback from Devin Bickner, associate professor of mathematics at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay; Eric Goska, a math major at Northwestern University; and Kevin Quinn, dean of the Donald J. Schneider School of Business & Economics at St. Norbert College.
Adamczyk's comparisons include the '31 and '67 Packers, who share the NFL record for most consecutive NFL titles, and the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs as they pursue a record-tying third straight title.
Adamczyk's conclusion: "There's a scenario where the difficulty/probability is equal between the '67 Packers and '24 Chiefs, but the range of probabilities extends lower for the Chiefs." He also noted that he added data from Vegas odds to help in that comparison as a proxy for how likely the Chiefs are to win their respective playoff games. His algorithm follows.
League Size and Basic Probability
Expansion Over the Years:
1931: 10 teams
1967: 16 teams
2024: 32 teams
Basic Probability of Winning the Championship:
Assuming all teams have an equal chance (a simplification for illustrative purposes):
1931 Packers: 1 in 10 chance (10%)
1967 Packers: 1 in 16 chance (6.25%)
2024 Chiefs: 1 in 32 chance (3.125%)
Observation: The sheer number of teams has increased, reducing the basic probability of any single team winning the championship. However, this doesn't account for factors like team strength, playoff structures, and player continuity.
Playoff Structures and Paths to Victory
1931 Packers:
Regular Season Games: 14
Playoff Games: None
Championship Determination: Best regular-season record
Margin for Error: Minimal. The Packers couldn't afford to lose more than one game without jeopardizing their championship hopes.
1967 Packers:
Regular Season Games: 14
Playoff Games: 3 (Western Conference Championship, NFL Championship, Super Bowl II)
Total Games: 17
Margin for Error: They could afford to lose up to one additional game; more could force a tiebreaker or playoff.
2024 Chiefs:
Regular Season Games: 17
Playoff Games: 3 or 4 (depending on first-round bye)
Total Games: 20 or 21
Margin for Error: Greater due to expanded playoffs. The Chiefs could potentially lose multiple regular-season games and still secure a playoff spot.
Impact of Playoff Expansion:
More Playoff Teams:
1931: No playoffs
1967: 4 teams (Plus 2 more in the AFL to determine Super Bowl opponent)
2024: 14 teams
Increased Playoff Rounds:
- More games introduce additional opportunities for upsets and require sustained peak performance over a longer period.
Margin for Error: Regular Season Records
1929-1931 Packers:
Could Not Afford Additional Losses:
1929 & 1930: Zero additional losses without risking the championship.
1931: Maybe one more loss but risked a tie and potential loss of the title.
1965-1967 Packers:
Limited Room for Error:
1965: Zero additional losses permissible.
1966: Could lose up to two more games; three would force a conference playoff.
1967: Could lose one, maybe two more games; more would risk missing playoffs.
2002-2023 Super Bowl Champions:
Greater Flexibility:
- Many champions could have lost several more regular-season games and still made the playoffs due to wildcard spots and expanded playoff fields.
Worst Records to Make Playoffs:
- Teams with 7-9 or 8-8 records have made the playoffs.
Best Records Missing Playoffs:
- Teams with 10-6 or even 11-5 records have missed the playoffs, highlighting the competitiveness.
Observation: The modern era allows for more regular-season losses without eliminating championship hopes, but the increased number of playoff games balances this by adding more hurdles to the title.
Statistical Probabilities and Playoff Challenges
Cumulative Probability of Winning Consecutive Playoff Games:
Assuming a Strong Team with a 70% Chance to Win Each Playoff Game:
1967 Packers:
Number of Playoff Games: 3
Cumulative Probability: 0.70^3 = 34.3%
2024 Chiefs:
Number of Playoff Games: 3 or 4
With First-Round Bye (3 games): 0.70^3 = 34.3%
Without Bye (4 games): 0.70^4 = 24%
Observation: The Chiefs face a lower cumulative probability if they don't have a bye due to more playoff games, increasing the difficulty of achieving a threepeat, and equal probability if they do have a bye.
2024 Chiefs – adjusted odds:
If we assume a higher level of difficulty garnering a lower probability of success in each playoff game, then we could adjust. Looking at Vegas odds across the NFL over the last 3 seasons, the favored team wins 65.7% of the time. If we assume that Chiefs will be favored in general through the playoffs, then:
With First-Round Bye (3 games): 0.657^3 = 28.4%
Without Bye (4 games): 0.657^4 = 18.6%
Vegas odds for the same for the Lombardi era suggest a 70% probability, so we're looking at an overall probability for the 1967 Packers of 34.3% versus a Chiefs probability range of 18.6%-24% if they aren't the #1 seed or 28.4%-34.3% if they are the #1 seed.
Parity and Competitive Balance
Team Continuity and Player Movement:
Earlier Eras:
Greater Continuity: Teams could retain core players for extended periods, fostering cohesion.
Less Player Movement: Limited free agency meant less roster turnover.
Modern Era:
Free Agency and Salary Cap: Introduced in 1993, these have increased parity by distributing talent across the league.
Significant Continuity at Key Positions: Despite overall roster changes, positions like quarterback often see continuity due to their critical importance.
Impact on Team Success:
Importance of the Quarterback:
Modern NFL: The quarterback is the most pivotal position, heavily influencing a team's success.
Chiefs' Advantage: Patrick Mahomes provides significant continuity and elite performance.
Historical Context:
1931 & 1967: While quarterback was important, the game emphasized a more balanced offensive approach.
Observation: The modern NFL's emphasis on the quarterback position means that continuity here can significantly impact a team's ability to achieve sustained success, despite greater roster turnover elsewhere.
Strength of Competition
Best Records Not Winning the Championship:
1929-1931:
Strong Contenders:
1929: New York Giants (13-1-1) posed a significant challenge.
Other Teams: A few teams had winning records but fewer overall contenders due to the smaller league size.
1965-1967:
Highly Competitive:
1967: Los Angeles Rams (11-1-2) and Baltimore Colts (11-1-2) showcased the intense competition.
Notable Exclusion: The Colts missed the playoffs, despite their stellar record, due to tiebreakers.
2002-2023:
Deep Playoff Fields:
- Multiple teams with strong records (10-6, 11-5) have missed the playoffs.
Wild Card Success: Teams entering the playoffs as wildcards have won Super Bowls, indicating depth of competition.
Observation: The modern NFL features a higher number of strong teams due to parity, increasing the level of competition the Chiefs must overcome.
Parity and Upsets in the Modern NFL
Increased Parity:
Salary Cap and Free Agency: Levels the playing field by preventing wealthier teams from stockpiling talent.
Any Given Sunday: The phrase reflects the reality that any team can win on any day, increasing unpredictability. *(Christl note: The colloquial expression "On Any Given Sunday" in reference to the NFL dates to 1958 and is credited to former commissioner Bert Bell.) *Impact on the Chiefs:
More Potential Upsets: The Chiefs must be prepared to face well-matched opponents throughout the playoffs.
Sustained Excellence Required: Consistency and high-level performance are critical over more games.
The Quarterback Factor
Significance of QB Continuity:
Modern Era Emphasis:
- Elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes are central to a team's championship aspirations.
- Continuity at QB can offset some challenges posed by increased parity.
Historical Comparison:
Earlier Eras:
- The quarterback was important but not as central to team success as in today's pass-heavy game.
- Teams often relied more on a balanced attack and strong defenses.
Observation: While the Packers benefited from team continuity, the Chiefs' continuity at the quarterback position is a significant advantage in the modern NFL.
Conclusion:
While both the Packers and the Chiefs face (or faced) significant challenges unique to their times, the modern NFL's structure – with more teams, an expanded playoff system, increased parity, and a greater emphasis on the quarterback – suggests that the Chiefs' path to a threepeat is at best equal to the 1967 Packers but is arguably tougher.
