GREEN BAY – If the Packers are going to leave U.S. Bank Stadium victorious on Sunday, they'll probably have to do something that's been incredibly difficult to do.
Beat the Vikings in a close game.
Sure, it would be great if the Packers could win in a runaway like last year in Minneapolis, but that was a very different – and depleted – Vikings team.
This one is riding high with a chance at the NFC's No. 1 playoff seed and first-round bye, and it's in that position largely due to its ability to win the close ones.
In building a 13-2 record, Minnesota is 8-1 in one-possession games (margin of eight points or fewer), the second-best mark in the league this year behind only Kansas City (11-0). That loss was a two-point defeat to NFC North rival Detroit by a score of 31-29, the same score by which the Vikings beat the Packers in the first meeting this season back in Week 4.
Winning close games has become a hallmark of coach Kevin O'Connell's tenure in Minnesota, as he led the Vikings to an 11-0 mark in one-possession contests and an NFC North crown in his first season in 2022.
All told, O'Connell is now 25-9 over three seasons in one-possession games, which according to NFL Research ranks as the second-best winning percentage in league history (.735) for coaches with at least 25 one-possession decisions. The only one better is Hall of Fame coach Guy Chamberlin (22-7-7, .759), and O'Connell ranks just ahead of another Hall of Famer, John Madden (40-14-7, .732).
Similarly, Matt LaFleur experienced a run of success in one-possession games during the early stages of his tenure as Green Bay's head coach. From the beginning of 2019 to roughly the midpoint of the 2021 season, LaFleur was a remarkable 16-3 in one-possession games. Since then, the law of averages in some respects has caught up to the Packers, with LaFleur now 34-21 in one-possession games overall, including playoffs.
Teams that win close games are both resilient and clutch, to boil it down to a couple of traits. Resilient in needing to bounce back from something that goes wrong, so a game doesn't get away and a chance at victory remains within reach. Clutch in being able to perform well at crunch time, either putting together the needed drive for the game-winning points, or getting the stop on defense to preserve a tight margin.
The Packers have been pretty good in close games this season, too, starting 5-2 before losing on a walk-off field goal at Detroit three weeks ago.
That game turned on the Packers having to settle for a tying field goal, rather than a go-ahead touchdown, late in the fourth quarter, and then not stopping the Lions until they had burned the last 3½ minutes off the clock for a last-play kick.
There's a good chance this game could hinge on a similar scenario, and execution at crunch time will decide it.
It's also worth pointing out the historical significance of this matchup, and the last two weeks of the 2024 regular season in the NFC North.
With the Vikings at 13-2 and the Packers at 11-4, this will mark the first time in the 127 regular-season meetings between these longtime rivals that both teams come in with 11-plus wins.
League-wide, it's also just the fourth game in the last 25 seasons pitting two division rivals with 11-plus wins each, according to NFL Research.
There hasn't been such a game in five years, the 2019 regular-season finale between the 49ers and Seahawks, and the last one in the NFC North was a decade ago, the 2014 finale at Lambeau Field between the Lions and Packers.
And then the fifth such divisional game in the last 25 years will take place next week, when the Vikings visit the Lions (13-2).
So, just how good is the NFC North this year?
"I think we'll find out when it comes to playoff time," LaFleur said. "Just all of us going against one another, it's forced you to be at your best every week. I mean, you can't afford a slip up just to keep up with everybody. I would say that it's forced you to bring it every day."
For this Packers-Vikings showdown, Green Bay is trying to keep its hopes alive for the top wild-card seed (No. 5), while Minnesota wants to stay in the running for the No. 1 seed.
As such, QB Jordan Love said there's "all the motivation in the world" to win this one, particularly with the NFC's three best teams – Lions, Eagles and Vikings – being responsible for all four of the Packers' losses this season.
"Badly," was how Love described how much the Packers want to beat one of the top teams. "Obviously we only have one more chance here this week.
"Like I've talked about before, we've got to be able to go win these games against the really good teams in the league and set ourselves up for the situation we'll be in for the playoffs – on the road playing good teams."
