INDIANAPOLIS – Packers General Manager Brian Gutekunst's draft board already is showing a surplus of players with draftable grades in the later rounds this year.
He made a point of saying so at the NFL Scouting Combine last week, pointing out "the numbers are high" for the third day of the draft.
There are a couple of key reasons for that.
One is the fallout from the Covid years of 2020-21. As the NCAA navigated the pandemic, it granted players extra years of college eligibility that have been used up, so many players who might've entered the draft in recent years are available now instead.
Another is the NIL (name, image, likeness) landscape, which has generated significant play-for-pay contracts for college players they didn't previously have access to. As a result, players are staying in school longer to maximize on their college earning power before turning pro, rather than seeing the NFL as their quickest avenue to money.
While those factors haven't changed the outlook at the top of the draft as much, their confluence has created a deeper draft board in the later rounds.
"There's a lot of guys that came back for their fifth and sixth years – a lot of 24-, 25-year-old players in this draft," Gutekunst said. "Obviously, over the past three or four years, the guys who are going to go in the top of the first round, those guys came out. Those guys don't ever really stay in.
"But a lot of the other guys had options because of the NIL and the extra years they had, so I think that's catching up, so the numbers are really, really high, especially in that third day."
What that means for the Packers remains to be seen. As of now, Green Bay is anticipating five Day 3 draft picks – one in each round from the fourth through the seventh, plus an extra seventh as a compensatory pick for losing offensive lineman Josh Nijman in free agency last year.
That's not as many third-day picks as Gutekunst has owned in recent drafts, but when asked about that, he lightheartedly interrupted the question about having fewer picks by saying, "Yet."
Media reports have indicated the Packers are willing to trade cornerback Jaire Alexander, so that could be one place Gutekunst is hoping to add to his draft capital. He's also never shied away from shifting positions as the draft unfolds, and any trades down would generate extra picks as well.
On that note, Gutekunst has been assured by team President/CEO Mark Murphy that he won't be prevented from trading his first-round pick with Green Bay hosting the draft. He can make whatever moves he feels are in the team's best interests.
However many picks wind up at his disposal, Gutekunst acknowledged the scouting process has become more challenging in this newer times, not just with more draftable players in the later rounds this year, but also with players in general transferring to different schools more often throughout their college careers. That's become more and more common in the NIL era as players chase the best financial offers.
Regional scouts who have been following certain players during their college careers must pass their files to other colleagues when a player transfers to another part of the country as the team continues to follow him. When his career is over, the number of close contacts who know something about that player and with whom the team wants to follow up has increased exponentially as well.
"It's interesting how many guys have been to two, three schools," Gutekunst said. "When I first started, that was a red flag. It's very typical now.
"Our guys do a great job obtaining the background information on these guys. Before, you could go into a school and this guy recruited him, was in the home when they recruited him, was with him for three or four years, watched him grow, watched him develop. Now, that might've all taken place at three schools.
"So, it's a lot more collaboration with our scouting staff helping each other out, because the coach you need to talk to might be a completely different region."
Last year, three of the Packers' 11 draft picks had played at multiple colleges – third-round RB MarShawn Lloyd (South Carolina, USC), third-round LB Ty'Ron Hopper (Florida, Missouri) and fourth-round S Evan Williams (Fresno St., Oregon).
The year before, two draft picks had played at multiple schools, including receiver Jayden Reed (Western Michigan, Michigan St.).
Players using those transfer options to stay in school longer has created more apples to oranges comparisons in the scouting process, too. Some players are a full 3-4 years older than many top picks who enter the draft with college eligibility remaining.
That means more players are coming into the NFL with more physically mature bodies, so there's less projection as to how their frames might develop. The young guys coming out early still require more crystal-ball assessment, so to speak.
Gutekunst stressed the only way to manage it and be thorough is to take each case on an individual basis. There's simply a wider range of draft-eligible players, and the best personnel staffs leave no stone unturned.
"We've spent a lot of time talking and tweaking our process to make sure we get the answers we need," he said. "But it's a little bit of a different world right now."
